Boeing released its long-term industry outlook at the International Paris Air Show, raising its global forecast for the commercial aircraft industry over the next two decades.
Boeing said the airline industry will need 44,040 new commercial aircraft worth $6.8 trillion by 2038, up 3% from $6.49 trillion estimated last year.
Boeing believes the biggest demand will be in single-aisle jets, where the company estimates airlines will need 32,420 narrow-body planes by 2038.
The industry has now recorded nine straight years of steady and above trend growth. Boeing’s experts expect robust demand in the next 20 years as strong economic growth, growing middle classes, increasing consumer spending on services, and evolving airline business models bring more value to passengers and support the long-term outlook.
The air travel market is projected to be 2.5 times larger in 20 years and the global commercial jet fleet will grow to accommodate, doubling in size by 2038. Of all deliveries, 56% are needed to accommodate growth in the market. The remaining demand will replace more than three quarters of the existing fleet with almost 19,000 commercial jet deliveries estimated as replacement over the next 20 years.
European air traffic continued its strong run in 2018, with network airlines carrying 6.5% more passenger traffic than in 2017 and the largest low-cost carriers in Europe reporting an increase in passengers of almost 10%. European airlines acquired 336 new aircraft in 2018, over 80% of the single-aisle. The European aviation market is expected to growth during the next 20 years, with airlines forecast to acquire almost 9000 new aeroplanes, valued at over $1.3 trillion, with single-aisles continuing to represent 80% of deliveries.